insights Executive Overview
verified Data scope: H1 2025Vietnam sustains strong momentum into 2025. GDP expanded 7.96% in Q2 (y/y) and 7.52% in H1—the best first-half since 2011—driven by industry and services. Inflation remains contained, unemployment is low, and FDI inflows are robust despite global trade tensions and tariff headwinds.
summarize Executive Summary
Key takeaways
- Q2 GDP up 7.96% y/y; H1 growth 7.52%—strongest since 2011.
- Services and manufacturing are primary growth engines; retail up 9.9% y/y in Q1.
- Inflation remains controlled at 3.57% in June; unemployment at 2.20%.
- FDI momentum robust: US$21.51B in H1; registered capital up 51% in the first five months.
Forecast context
International institutions foresee solid but moderating growth: World Bank 5.8%, ADB 6.6%, IMF 5.2%. Government targets are more ambitious at 8.3–8.5%, supported by strong fundamentals and parliamentary support to target at least 8%.
Interpretation: The gap between targets and external forecasts suggests optimism grounded in domestic resilience but tempered by external risks.
info Read the concise narrative
Vietnam enters 2025 with resilient growth underpinned by services, manufacturing recovery, and steady domestic demand. While global trade tensions and tariffs pose challenges, robust FDI inflows, controlled inflation, and low unemployment provide buffers. Policy focus includes diversifying export markets, bolstering internal demand, and preserving macro-stability, with fiscal space reserved to counter external shocks if needed.
science Methodology & Sources
Approach
- Extracted structured indicators from provided report text.
- Built normalized dataset for GDP, inflation, labor market, FDI, retail, sectors, and risks.
- Visualized with custom Canvas/SVG charts; all processing runs locally in-browser.
- Contextual summaries and cross-references generated to align with the report’s narrative.
Scope & caveats
- Time horizon: Q1–Q2 2025 (H1) with historical Q1 2020–2025 comparison.
- No external data fetching; citations link to original sources for verification.
- Forecasts reflect listed institutions and government targets in the report.
show_chart GDP Growth Performance
Q1–Q2 2025 and H1 snapshot
H1 2025 growth reached 7.52%—best first half since 2011—supported by services and industry.
Q1 growth trend (2020–2025)
YoY Q1 growth by year: 3.21%, 4.85%, 5.42%, 3.46%, 5.98%, 6.93%.
2025 GDP growth forecasts
World Bank: 5.8% · ADB: 6.6% · IMF: 5.2% · Government: 8.3–8.5%.
GDP highlights
- Services sector is the largest contributor to growth; manufacturing recovery continues.
- Export-oriented industries remain the backbone despite global headwinds.
- Banking sector earnings projected +17% in 2025 on credit growth of ~15%.
stacked_bar_chart Inflation & Labor Market
Inflation within target band
Labor market remains tight
Unemployment stood at 2.20% in Q1 2025, edging down from 2.22% in Q4 2024—historically low and supportive of consumption.
expand_more Context
Low unemployment supports retail resilience and moderates downside risks from external shocks by buffering household demand.
account_balance FDI & Retail Activity
FDI momentum
- First 5 months: Registered $18.4B (+51% y/y), Disbursed $8.9B.
- H1 2025 total FDI: $21.51B (+32.6% y/y).
Retail performance
Q1 2025 retail sales reached 1.708 quadrillion VND (~US$66.83B), up 9.9% y/y.
expand_more Implications
Healthy retail growth complements export resilience, signaling balanced demand drivers.
warning Challenges & Risk Factors
Key external pressures
- Global trade tensions weigh on exports.
- US tariff policies pressure export-oriented businesses.
- Geopolitical instability raises business uncertainty.
Macro considerations
- Warnings on inflation and potential overdependence on FDI.
- Growth must not undermine macro-stability or debt sustainability.
policy Policy posture
The government is diversifying export markets, strengthening domestic demand, and preserving macro-stability, with fiscal room to cushion shocks if needed.
timeline Historical Comparison
Q1 YoY growth (2020–2025)
Sequence: 3.21 → 4.85 → 5.42 → 3.46 → 5.98 → 6.93.
At-a-glance
| Year | GDP (Q1 y/y) | Annual Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.21% | Pandemic onset |
| 2021 | 4.85% | Partial recovery |
| 2022 | 5.42% | Reopening momentum |
| 2023 | 3.46% | External slowdown |
| 2024 | 5.98% | Growth re-acceleration |
| 2025 | 6.93% | Strong start to the year |
2024 annual GDP growth: 7.1%. 2025 may moderate versus H1 pace due to external factors, but fundamentals stay resilient.
crisis_alert Economic Outlook & Projections
Near-term prospects (2025)
- Solid growth expected amid uncertainty; 8.3–8.5% government target is ambitious.
- Supportive fundamentals: strong FDI, low unemployment, controlled inflation, export competitiveness.
- Parliament raised growth target from 6.5–7% to at least 8%.
Scenarios
security Risk mitigation strategies
- Diversify export markets and supply chains.
- Stimulate domestic demand through targeted measures.
- Enhance economic resilience and productivity.
- Maintain macro-stability; flex fiscal policy if global shocks intensify.
dataset Interactive Dataset
| Category | Metric | Value | Period | Source |
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